This week will continue to discuss the “big picture” (before going into more specific aspects) with:

Modern trade is becoming nearly “Tripolar”.

1. Today, Asia holds the fastest growing pole but is still the smallest; with a total population of over 3 billion and a total GDP of about 8 trillion USD.

2. USA, Canada and Mexico (NAFTA) come second. In total, about 430 million people with a GDP of 13 trillion USD.

3. Europe is third with 460 million people and a GDP of 12 trillion USD.

The next 20 years (until 2030) will be a “transition” period in the “global economic order.

While we assist to the emergence of the “ASEAN” and “BRIC” nations, we can all ask ourselves “how much longer will the US lead the global economic order?” – (Well that is a big question isn’t it !)

Though some predict the US economy to decline (and we are not casting doubt on that), the US will remain a global power at least until 2030 (and maybe longer) through its military, its strong technological and financial power (currency status & financial assets).

Some experts estimate that by then, Europe will have risen as a key player (the Euro becoming a powerful currency to compete with the USD) in the global “financial authority” and will share the top spot with the US. Additionally, it is likely that the Chinese Yuan will become the “regional” currency in Asia and the Japanese YEN becoming a “reserve” currency.

Now there are lots of possible outcomes for any scenarios trying to figure out the future of modern trade. Bear in mind these determinant factors, and develop your own thoughts on it: the foundation of modern trade in the 21^st century will depend on, “the future economical orientations of China and India”, “the countries ability to secure natural resources”, “the countries development of science & technology” and “the countries ability to generate financial power” (Source: Jung Ku-Hyun, Samsung Economic Research Institute).

By 2030, a “tripolar world” would be the Americas (North & South together; moving from NAFTA to FTAA), Europe (EU27 - all countries united) and Asia (led by China, ASEAN+3).

For your continued interest:

Important Abbreviations to know (which play a major role in free trade agreements):

ASEAN is: Brunei, Burma, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam

ASEAN+3 is: ASEAN+ China, South Korea, Japan (with India, Australia and New Zealand)

BRIC: Brazil, Russia, India, China

NAFTA: North American Free Trade Agreement

FTAA: Free Trade Area of the Americas

EU27 is: Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxemburg, Malta, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden and the United Kingdom.